图片26uuu色

让每一个东说念主摆脱地领路政事

让宇宙各地的学东说念主后果互联互通

让政事学东说念主的中枢存眷得到传播

让醒目的政事学东说念主分享这片充满念念考和情感的太空

政事学东说念主恒久在路上

本期外欧化部为内行带来了Annual Review of Political Science（ARPS，《政事科学年鉴》）2022年第25卷著作编译。

PART 1

期刊简介

Annual Review of Political Science（ARPS，《政事科学年鉴》）自 1998 年开动出书，涵盖了政事科学规模的要紧发展，包括政事表面和政事形而上学、外洋关系、政事经济学、政事步履、好意思国政事和比较政事、寰球束缚和策略以及方法论的相关骨子。该刊第 25 卷（2022年）照旧通过 Annual Reviews 的 Subscribe to Open 面容从付费订阅看望（Subscribe）转为灵通看望（Open Access），通盘著作王人以 CCBY 许可式样出书。从 1998 年开动的卷期，现可免费获取。该刊绝大多数稿件来自裁剪委员会的约稿，少量刊发自投稿件。该刊在《科睿唯安 2021 年期刊援用回报》（Clarivate JCR2021）中 JIF=12.077，在 188 种政事科学类（Political Science-SSCI）期刊中排行第 1（Q1）。

PART 2

期刊目次

1. Historical Persistence

历史捏久性

2. Automation， Digitalization， and Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace: Implications for Political Behavior

责任时事的自动化、数字化与东说念主工智能：对政事步履的影响

3. Immigration and Globalization (and Deglobalization)

侨民与全球化（以及去全球化）

4. Emotion and Politics: Noncognitive Psychological Biases in Public Opinion

心情与政事：公众公论中的非剖释神气偏见

5. A Framework for the Study of Persuasion

劝服斟酌的一个框架

6. International Statebuilding and the Domestic Politics of State Development

外洋国度诞生与国度发展的国内务治

7. Testing Causal Theories with Learned Proxies

用习得性代理主见测试因果关系表面

8. Government Responsiveness in Developing Countries

发展中国度的政府复兴才能

9. Political Theory Rediscovers Public Administration

政事表面对寰球行政的再发现

10. Three Faces of Climate Justice

征象正义的三个面向

11. Race in International Relations: Beyond the“Norm Against Noticing”

外洋关系中的种族斟酌：超越“反对精明的表率”

12. Does Democracy Matter?

民主过错吗？

13. Las Vidas Negras Importan: Centering Blackness and Racial Politics in Latin American Research

黑命攸关：聚焦拉丁好意思洲斟酌中的黑东说念主与种族政事

PART 3

精选译文

01 历史捏久性

【题目】

Historical Persistence

【作家】

Alexandra Cirone and Thomas B. Pepinsky

【摘录】

本文追忆了政事学和相关社会科学中对于历史捏久性的文件。历史捏久性是指 (a) 在十年或更永劫期的时间圭臬上运作和 (b) 解释政事、经济或社会收尾空间变化的因果效应。尽管政事学家老是从历史中接纳灵感，但历史捏久性文件代表了社会科学历史斟酌的一种新方法，它青睐可靠的因果推理斟酌瞎想。咱们平时鉴戒现代政事学和经济学文件，商讨了区域和国度领域、起原进的斟酌瞎想、分析和推理的挑战以及捏久性的机制和表面。

This article reviews the literature on historical persistence in political science and the related social sciences. Historical persistence refers to causal effects that (a) operate over time scales of a decade or more and (b) explain spatial variation in political， economic， or social outcomes. Although political scientists have always drawn from history， the historical persistence literature represents a new approach to historical research in the social sciences that places a premium on credible research designs for causal inference. We discuss regional and national coverage， state-of-the-art research designs， analytical and inferential challenges， and mechanisms and theories of persistence， drawing broadly from the contemporary literature in political science and economics.

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02责任时事的自动化、数字化与东说念主工智能：对政事步履的影响

【题目】

Automation， Digitalization， and Artificial Intelligence in the Workplace: Implications for Political Behavior

【作家】

Aina Gallego and Thomas Kurer

【摘录】

近几十年来，新时刻一直是劳能源商场变化的要津驱能源。东说念主们再次挂牵机器东说念主和东说念主工智能等规模的时刻发展会疏忽做事契机并酿成政事飘荡。本文追忆了近期时刻变革所引起的经济后果的热烈辩白，然后商讨了辩论数字化若何影响政事参与、投票采取和策略偏好的斟酌。越来越多的凭据标明，普通工东说念主是现代时刻变革的主要输家，且他们不行比例地支捏民粹主义政党。但是，与此同期，数字化也培育了一多量支捏政事近况的经济赢家。与时刻相关的责任时事风险与政事步履和策略要求辩论起来的机制尚不太明确。选民可能无法彻底领路经济结构变化不同原因的相对过错性，并将包袱误归于其他成分。临了，咱们列举了一些蹙迫的斟酌问题。

New technologies have been a key driver of labor market change in recent  decades. There are renewed concerns that technological developments in areas such as robotics and artificial intelligence will destroy jobs and create political upheaval.  This article reviews the vibrant debate about the economic consequences of recent technological change and then discusses research about how digitalization may affect political participation， vote choice， and policy preferences. It is increasingly well established that routine workers have been the main losers of recent technological change and disproportionately support populist parties. However， at the same time， digitalization also creates a large group of economic winners who support the political status quo. The mechanisms connecting technology-related workplace risks to  political behavior and policy demands are less well understood. Voters may fail to fully comprehend the relative importance of different causes of structural economic change and misattribute blame to other factors. We conclude with a list of pressing research questions.

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03侨民与全球化（以及去全球化）

【题目】

Immigration and Globalization (and Deglobalization)

【作家】

David Leblang and Margaret E. Peters

【摘录】

侨民策略经常被刻画为劳能源和老本之间或上流技和低妙技劳能源之间的零和量度。好多东说念主将民粹主义政客和民粹主义领路的兴起归因于侨民和/或侨民策略。诚然侨民对分派有影响，但咱们觉得在商讨中彰着吞吐了一些东西：侨民是全球化的能源，尤其是对南半球国度而言。侨民和侨民收罗有助于扩大经济商场，越过国界传播信息，并在全宇宙传播民主表率和作念法，增多营业和投资流量。咱们进一步觉得，好多褒贬家把这种因果关系弄反了。咱们觉得，与其说是侨民减少了对全球化的支捏，不如说是营业、金融流动和离岸外包缩短了全球朔方精英阶级和多数公民对侨民的支捏。

Immigration policy is often portrayed as a zero-sum trade-off between labor and capital or between high- and low-skilled labor. Many have attributed the rise of populist politicians and populist movements to immigrants and/or immigration policy. While immigration has distributional implications， we argue that something is clearly missing from the discussion: the fact that migrants are an engine of globalization， especially for countries in the Global South. Migration and migrant networks serve to expand economic markets， distribute information across national borders， and diffuse democratic norms and practices throughout the world， increasing trade and investment flows. We further argue that many commentators have got the causal relationship  backward: Instead of immigration reducing support for globalization， we argue that trade， financial flows， and offshoring have reduced support for immigration among the elite and a vocal plurality of citizens in the Global North.

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04心情与政事：公众公论中的非剖释神气偏见

【题目】

Emotion and Politics: Noncognitive Psychological Biases in Public Opinion

【作家】

Steven W. Webster and Bethany Albertson

【摘录】

现代政事因其心情特征而引东说念主珍爱。心情塑造党派极化、公众公论和政事作风，并反之被其引发。在这篇著作中，咱们空洞了心情和政事规模的近期斟酌骨子，重心关注心情与党派极化、问题作风、信息处理和民主治理不雅点之间的关系。咱们还指出，有越来越多的学者对心情影响政事步履的着力在种族和性别中的各异进行了斟酌。临了，咱们商讨了尚未贬责的问题，并为在这个日益过错的规模责任的学者建议了将来标的的建议。

Contemporary politics is noteworthy for its emotional character. Emotions  shape and， in turn， are elicited by partisan polarization， public opinion， and political attitudes. In this article， we outline recent work in the field of emotion and politics with an emphasis on the relationship between emotion and polarization， issue attitudes， information processing， and views on democratic governance. We also highlight a growing body of scholarship that examines the racial and gender differences in emotion’s ability to affect political behavior.We conclude with a discussion of unaddressed questions and suggestions for future directions for scholars working in this area of growing importance.

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05 劝服斟酌的一个框架

【题目】

A Framework for the Study of Persuasion

【作家】

James N. Druckman

【摘录】

劝服是政事的过错构成部分——谁能赢得选举和策略争论，往往取决于哪一方能劝服更多的东说念主。鉴于该议题的中枢性位，对劝服的斟酌已有很长的历史，存在多量的表面与实证斟酌。但是，现存文件零星，真实莫得可归纳的发现。我通过建议一个框架来长入这个主题往日不相关的维度，该框架侧重于步履者（演讲者和采纳者）、处理（主题、骨子、媒体）、收尾（作风、步履、心情、身份）和环境（竞争、空间、时间、历程、文化）。这一归纳劝服（GP）框架组织了不同的发现，并为斟酌东说念主员提供了一个定位其责任的结构。临了，我商讨了劝服的表率性真义真义。

Persuasion is a vital part of politics—who wins elections and policy disputes  often depends on which side can persuade more people. Given this centrality， the study of persuasion has a long history with an enormous number of theories and empirical inquiries. However， the literature is fragmented， with few generalizable findings. I unify previously disparate dimensions of this topic by presenting a framework focusing on actors (speakers and receivers)， treatments (topics， content， media)， outcomes (attitudes， behaviors， emotions，identities)， and settings (competition， space， time，process，culture). This Generalizing Persuasion (GP) Framework organizes distinct findings and offers researchers a structure in which to situate their work. I conclude with a discussion of the normative implications of persuasion.

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06 外洋国度诞生与国度发展的国内务治

【题目】

International State-building and the Domestic Politics of State Development

【作家】

Melissa M. Lee

【摘录】

束缚暴力威逼仍然是外洋安全和发展的中枢问题。外洋步履者试图通过诞生和和煦加强国度机构来远离内战并珍爱突破再次发生。在这篇著作中，我追忆了对于外洋国度诞生的学术斟酌，广义上的外洋国度诞生是指创建、加强、革新和矫正国度权利结构的外部竭力。这方面的文件大多将外洋国度诞生当作限定模子，其中提到，外部参与者为困扰突破后谈判的践诺问题提供贬责决议。但是，在许厚情况下，复旧限定模子的国内务治假定并不建立。当国内务治的中枢问题波及就和平的分派后果进行谈判，而不是各方对和平作出信得过欢喜的才能时，外洋国度诞生就更富饶收效地被诞生为强制实施的模式，即对刚硬的国内步履者施加强制条目。这种强制模式允许外部步履者对战后顺次的偏好与国内步履者的偏好相悖离。出现不对是因为国度诞生侵略会产生威逼国内精英利益的分派后果。为了解释该情况出现的原因，我研读了对于国度诞生中国内务治的一些文件，这些文件标明，在局外东说念主看来是弱国度的治理安排不错通过促进主权房钱（译者注：文满意为使用国度权利而产生的寻租用度）的分派来匡助束缚暴力。这些文件的不雅点为将来的学术斟酌提供了兴隆东说念主心的新旅途。

Managing the threat of violence remains a central concern in international  security and development. International actors seek to terminate civil wars and prevent conflict recurrence by building peace and strengthening state institutions. In this article， I review the scholarship on international statebuilding， defined broadly as external efforts to create， strengthen， reform， and transform the authority structures of the state. Much of this literature models international statebuilding as provision， in which external actors provide a solution to the enforcement problem that plagues postconflict bargains.However， in many cases， the assumptions about domestic politics underpinning the provision model do not hold. When the central problem of domestic politics concerns bargaining over the distributional consequences of the peace rather than the parties’ ability to credibly commit to the peace， international statebuilding is more fruitfully modeled as imposition， in which terms are imposed on recalcitrant domestic actors. The imposition model allows the preferences of external actors over the postwar order to diverge from the preferences of domestic actors. Divergence arises because statebuilding interventions have distributional consequences that threaten the interests of domestic elites.To unpack why this is the case， I turn to the literature on the domestic politics of statebuilding， which shows that governance arrangements that appear to outsiders as weak statehood can help manage violence by facilitating the distribution of sovereignty rents. Insights from these literatures suggest exciting new avenues for future scholarship.

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07 用习得性代理主见测试因果关系表面

【题目】

Testing Causal Theories with Learned Proxies

【作家】

Dean Knox， Christopher Lucas， and Wendy K. Tam Cho

【摘录】

社会科学家时常使用谋略模子来意料未不雅察到的成见的代用主见，然后将这些代用主见纳入其表面的后续锻练。这种斟酌方法在最近越过三分之二的政事学谋略责任中王人有发生，但这种作念法并未得到充分青睐。不完好的代理主见会响应出来自其他成见的干扰，产生有偏见的点意料和步履误差。咱们展示了分析师若何使用因果图来阐发表面成见偏激与代理主见的关系，然后应用苟简的限定来评估哪些论断不错得到严格支捏。咱们将“标记偏误”的常见启发式方法——一种对未不雅察到的混合征象进行推理的时刻——情势化并彭胀到具有不完好代理主见的场景。期骗这些器具，咱们展示了在经常遭遇的斟酌环境中，基于代理主见的分析若何灵验地测试表面效应的存在偏激标的。临了，咱们为快速增长的使用学习型代理主见来锻练因果表面的文件建议了最好践诺建议。

Social scientists commonly use computational models to estimate proxies of  unobserved concepts， then incorporate these proxies into subsequent tests of their theories. The consequences of this practice， which occurs in over two-thirds of recent computational work in political science， are underappreciated. Imperfect proxies can reflect noise and contamination from other concepts， producing biased point estimates and standard errors.We demonstrate how analysts can use causal diagrams to articulate theoretical concepts and their relationships to estimated proxies， then apply straightforward rules to assess which conclusions are rigorously supportable.We formalize and extend common heuristics for “signing the bias”—a technique for reasoning about unobserved confounding—to scenarios with imperfect proxies. Using these tools， we demonstrate how， in often-encountered research settings，  proxy-based analyses allow for valid tests for the existence and direction of  theorized effects. We conclude with best-practice recommendations for the rapidly growing literature using learned proxies to test causal theories.

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08 发展中国度的政府复兴才能

【题目】

Government Responsiveness in Developing Countries

【作家】

Guy Grossman and Tara Slough

【摘录】

政府何时以及若何提供寰球居品和服务以复兴公民偏好？咱们追忆了现时对于政府复兴才能的文件，重心关注发展中国度中政府对寰球居品和服务的提供。咱们坚信了这些论说中宽阔存在的三类步履者：政事家、官僚和公民。这些文件大多斟酌了这些步履者之间的互动关系。对选举问责制和选区服务的斟酌强调了公民（或选民）和政事家之间的关系。对官僚激励和对官僚的政事监督的斟酌强调了政事家和官僚之间的互动。临了，对官僚的镶嵌性和公民对官僚的监督的斟酌阐发了官僚与公民之间的互动关系。咱们觉得，波及到通盘三类步履者之间互动的新兴文件，为咱们斟酌对中低收入国度和其他国度的复兴才能和问责制提供了丰富的表面和素养泥土。

When and how do governments deliver public goods and services in response to citizen preferences? We review the current literature on government responsiveness， with a focus on public goods and service delivery in developing countries. We identify three types of actors that are commonly present in these accounts: politicians， bureaucrats， and citizens. Much of this literature examines interactions between dyads of these actors. The study of electoral accountability and constituency services emphasizes relationships between citizens (or voters) and politicians. Studies of bureaucratic incentives and political oversight of bureaucrats emphasize interactions between politicians and bureaucrats. Finally， studies of bureaucratic embeddedness  and citizen oversight of bureaucrats elaborate the interactions between bureaucrats and citizens. We argue that an emerging literature that considers interactions between all three types of actors provides rich theoretical and empirical terrain for developing our understanding of responsiveness and accountability in low- and middle-income countries and beyond.

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09 政事表面对寰球行政的再发现

【题目】

Political Theory Rediscovers Public Administration

【作家】

Bernardo Zacka

【摘录】

政事表面正在从头发现寰球行政这个大而无当——纷乱的寰球服务和监管机构偏激处理政府日常事务的无数雇员和延迟机构。这篇综述解释了如斯彰着的事物是若何从咱们的视线中消释的，并窥察了四个新兴的斟酌规模。这些规模波及到寰球行政的正当性，与细致寰球策略具备不同步履的细致政府的讲解，对官僚机构的说念德能动性若何被官僚机构的日常运作所拖累和疏忽的分析，以及当咱们通过看似平常的行政法子来领路国度时，咱们应该若何将其成见化。从这部单干作中不错看出，行政官僚机构与政府的其他两个部门——立法机构和王法机构相通，是表率性、批判性和成见性斟酌的对象。

Political theory is rediscovering the colossus of public administration—the vast public service and regulatory bureaucracies and their countless employees and extensions that conduct the daily business of government. This review explains how something so visible could ever have fallen from view， and surveys four burgeoning areas of research. These pertain to the legitimacy of public administration， to the articulation of standards of good government distinct from good public policy， to the analysis of how the moral agency of bureaucrats is implicated and undermined by the everyday operation of bureaucratic agencies， and to how we should conceptualize the state when we apprehend it through the seemingly banal routines of administration.  What emerges from this body of work is a picture of the executive bureaucracy as an object of normative， critical， and conceptual inquiry on a par with the other two branches of government， the legislature and the judiciary.

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10 征象正义的三个面向

【题目】

Three Faces of Climate Justice

【作家】

Nives Dolšak and Aseem Prakash

【摘录】

对于征象变化的科学，东说念主们有很强的共鸣。但是，征象政事在不公说念不雅念的鼓舞下仍然不清醒，这会激勉策略抑制并疏忽策略正当性。咱们坚信了三种类型的不公说念。第一种类型波及不同国度和国度里面不同社区对征象变化影响的不平衡显露。在社会、政事和经济规模处于颓势，对酿成征象危急影响最小的社区，往往受到的影响却最大。为搪塞征象变化偏激影响，国度和场合单元制定了一系列策略。但是，即使是用心瞎想的缓解和符合策略，其成本（第二个正义维度）和收益（第三个正义维度）在各部门和社区之间的分派亦然不平衡的，往往会再现现存的不对等征象。征象正义需要密切关注谁承担成本以及谁从征象不当作和活动中获益。

There is overwhelming consensus about the science of climate change. Climate politics， however， remains volatile， driven by perceptions of injustice， which motivate policy resistance and undermine policy legitimacy. We identify three types of injustice.  The first pertains to the uneven exposure to climate change impacts across countries and communities within a country. Socially， politically， and economically disadvantaged communities that have contributed the least to the climate crisis tend to be affected the most. To address climate change and its impacts， countries and subnational units have enacted a range of policies. But even carefully designed mitigation and adaptation policies distribute costs (the second justice dimension) and benefits (the third justice dimension) unevenly across sectors and communities，  often reproducing existing inequalities. Climate justice requires paying careful attention to who bears the costs and who gets the benefits of both climate inaction and action. 

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11 外洋关系中的种族斟酌：超越“反对精明的表率”

【题目】

Race in International Relations: Beyond the“Norm Against Noticing”

【作家】

Bianca Freeman， D.G. Kim， and David A. Lake

【摘录】

全球种族正义领路以及在疫情最严重时反亚裔仇恨的昂首，让外洋政事中的种族和种族主义受到了新的关注。尽管批判表面家责难“反对精明的表率”，但其他外洋关系学者耐久以来一直逃避种族在塑造现代外洋事务中可能阐发的作用。外洋关系中品级轨制的新斟酌为从头领路宇宙政事中的种族掀开了大门。咱们为种族品级、外洋法和酬酢策略之间的关系建议了一个分析框架，证明种族不错匡助解释督察不对等全球顺次的国度间互动模式。通过在外洋关系中对种族主义的两个方面进行定位，咱们斟酌了种族主义在践诺中若何对外洋法产生偏见，并影响对异邦威逼和国度利益的评估。咱们商讨了外洋关系中种族实证斟酌的要津方法挑战，重心是测量、团员和因果关系的问题。

The global movement for racial justice and the rise of anti-Asian hate at the  height of the pandemic have called new attention to race and racism in international politics. Although critical theorists have decried the “norm against  noticing，” other scholars of international relations have long sidestepped the possible role of race in shaping contemporary international affairs. New studies of hierarchy in international relations open the door for new understandings of race in world politics.We propose an analytic framework for the relationship between racial hierarchy， international law， and foreign policy， demonstrating that race can help explain patterns of interstate interactions that sustain an unequal global order. Positing two faces of racism in international relations， we examine how race biases international law in practice and affects the assessment of foreign threats and national interest.We discuss key methodological challenges in empirical research on race in international relations， focusing on issues of measurement， aggregation， and causation.

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12 民主过错吗？

【题目】

Does Democracy Matter?

【作家】

John Gerring， Carl Henrik Knutsen， and Jonas Berge

【摘录】

民主对于表率真义真义上的梦想收尾是否过错？作家窥察了2000年后发表的600篇期刊著作中1100项跨国分析收尾。这些分析分手针对与社会策略、经济策略、公民权和东说念主权、军事和刑事王法以及全面治理辩论的30个不同收尾而进行。在这些不同的收尾中，大多数斟酌得出了与民主的积极或无效关系。但是，有凭据标明存在阈值偏差，这标明所呈现的收尾可能响应了民主效果的某种夸大形象。此外，民主效果更可能出当今容易达成的收尾上，而不是那些政府无法达成但时常具有过错表率真义真义的收尾中。作家还发现，与用更客不雅的主见揣度或代理的收尾比较，用主不雅主见揣度的收尾与民主走漏出更强的积极关系。

Does democracy matter for normatively desirable outcomes? We survey results from 1，100 cross-country analyses drawn from 600 journal articles published after the year 2000. These analyses are conducted on 30 distinct outcomes pertaining to social policy， economic policy， citizenship and human rights， military and criminal justice， and overall governance. Across these diverse outcomes， most studies report either a positive or null relationship with democracy. However， there is evidence of threshold bias， suggesting that reported findings may reflect a somewhat exaggerated image of democracy’s effects. Additionally， democratic effects are more likely to be found for outcomes that are easily attained than for those that lie beyond the reach of government but are often of great normative importance. We also find that outcomes measured by subjective indicators show a stronger positive relationship with democracy than outcomes that are measured or proxied by more objective indicators.

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13 黑东说念主的命亦然命：聚焦拉丁好意思洲斟酌中的黑东说念主与种族政事

【题目】

Las Vidas Negras Importan: Centering Blackness and Racial Politics in Latin American Research

【作家】

Danielle Pilar Clealand

【摘录】

拉丁好意思洲在吞吐水平、收入、解释、婴儿牺牲率、政事代表性、得到社会服务的契机和其他要津主见方面存在种族各异。但是，比较政事斟酌东说念主员濒临着一个笨重的挑战，即在民主化、民主安逸、代表权，以至社会领路和不对等的斟酌中优先琢磨种族政事，尽管种族品级轨制对拉丁好意思洲的民主格外无益。这篇著作东张黑东说念主政事和种族品级轨制在拉丁好意思洲政事中的中心肠位，并禁绝先容了最近的文件，以证明若何作念到这一丝。咱们必须领路拉丁好意思洲的种族招供和反黑东说念主种族主义：它们若何运作，以及它们若何影响、复杂化、鼓舞、坚信和激励政事，而不是将种族当作一个变量或收尾成分。在这篇著作中，我商讨了（a）为什么咱们应该将种族政事置于拉丁好意思洲政事的中心，（b）比较种族学者若何将黑东说念主政事置于中心，（c）准确揣度种族招供的必要方法，以及（d）最近的斟酌，该斟酌覆按了种族自我招供、黑东说念主群体意志和投票步履之间的互相作用。

Racial disparities in Latin America exist in poverty levels， income， education， infant mortality， political representation， access to social services， and other key indicators. However， researchers in comparative politics face an uphill challenge to prioritize racial politics in studies of democratization， democratic consolidation， representation， and even social movements and inequality， despite racial hierarchies being quite harmful to democracy in Latin America. This article argues for the centering of Black politics and racial hierarchies in Latin American politics and highlights recent literature to map just how that can be done. More than adding race as a variable or a control， we must understand racial identification and anti-Black racism in Latin America: how they operate， and how they influence， complicate， motivate， affirm， and inspire politics. In this article， I address (a) why we should center racial politics in Latin American politics， (b) how comparative racial scholars have centered Black politics， (c) the methodologies necessary to accurately measure racial identification， and (d) recent research that examines the interplay between racial self-identification， Black group consciousness， and voting behavior.

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翻  译：郝若雯 李璐雅 石寒冰

校  对：郝若雯 李璐雅 石寒冰26uuu色